It hasn't been quite a week since the last time, but since we're heading into a debate tonight (note to self: DVR!), here's where the candidates know they stand:
| Site | Obama | McCain | Toss-Up |
| 364 | 174 | ||
| Electoral-vote.com | 349 | 174 | 15 |
| FiveThirtyEight.com | 345.4 | 192.6 | |
| Pollster.com | 320 | 163 | 55 |
| 270ToWin.com | 264 | 163 | 111 |
| Hedgehog Report | 349 | 189 | |
| FederalReview.com | 305 | 185 | 48 |
| 3 Blue Dudes | 306 | 163 | 69 |
So all but one of the sites has Obama handily with the 270 needed. One of the sites has actually dropped the Obama lead slightly, but it still gives him one of the largest margins.
Margie's been watching these numbers a lot more than I have, and she's been keeping me apprised as various polls show various states (a surprising number) flipping for Obama.
Now what these sites don't yet reflect is (a) the McCain/Palin smear-surge, i.e., whether it's working or not, and (b) the results of tonight's debate, and any particular melt-downs from either candidate. (I may be biased, but I don't see Obama "melting down" -- underperforming and not coming off quite as town hall folksy as we know McCain can be, perhaps, but nothing that would significantly shake up the numbers here.)
I was asking a statistician of my acquaintance whether the numbers here meant that I could truly count on Obama winning (as much as one can count on anything). The statistician noted that when numbers get this high, the begin to take a life of their own -- people decide to vote for a winner, and are discouraged from supporting a loser. I'm hoping that's true ...
This is all barring some sort of "October Surprise" from the Republicans, of course -- but I think that the American public is so sick of that sort of thing, it would be so obvious of a gimmick that it would be largely discounted, or even cause a reverse effect.
We'll see. As candidates (usually the ones behind in the polls) usually say, there's only one poll that counts, and that's on election day. (Unless, of course, it gets thrown to the Supreme Court ...)
Filed under :: Elections 2008
I've been predicting an Obama landslide since he locked up the nomination. Unfortunately, I didn't have the guts to go public with it, so you only have my wife and kids as witnesses.
As for the debate, I'm fairly confident that Obama is a lot more at-ease in the town hall style than the media narrative says he is. Remember, back when he was running against Clinton, the places where he was able to turn around her lead were the ones where he had time to actually sit down in diners and meet with enough folks face-to-face. (Which is why Super Tuesday wasn't so good for him, because there were too many states at once.) Once people get to know him for real, I think it's hard to buy the "scary Muslim terrorist" caricature.
I also keep thinking back to the town hall with Bush vs. Clinton. Obama's no Bill Clinton, but I still see this as the cool, smart young dude vs. the cackling and ranting old guy. I don't think TV visuals will be kind to McCain standing next to Obama.
McCain's town hall experience also seems to relate to give-and-take. Since there are no follow-ups and things of that sort, that may crimp that style -- though it will also avoid ... well ... follow-ups.
By the way, cool proportional map here: http://colleyrankings.com/election2008/ (using http://realclearpolitics.com 's data, which counts 286 vs 252).